Here are my Oscar predictions for next Sunday so that people (Brendan) can critique them and make fun of me when I get most of them wrong. I'm only going to make picks for the major categories (AKA the categories I'm interested in).
Best Picture: The King's Speech
The King's Speech won all of the major awards and its got all the momentum. (Don't consider the Golden Globes as any sort of predictor since its only named the same Best Picture winner once in the last five years***). And, of course, The King's Speech is the Best Picture of the year, so there's that.
***In case you were curious (which you probably weren't) here are the Golden Globe winners vs. the Oscar winners for 2005-2009.
Golden Globes: Brokeback Mountain vs. Oscars: Crash
Golden Globes: Babel vs. Oscars: The Departed
Golden Globes: Atonement vs. Oscars: No Country for Old Men
Golden Globes & Oscars: Slumdog Millionaire (Really? It's a good movie, but a Best Picture winner-- come on.)
Golden Globes: Avatar vs. Oscars: The Hurt Locker
I'd score it a 2-2-1 tie in this movie face off (but you'll have to guess which films I'd take)!
Best Director: Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
Directors who've won the Directors Guild of America Award for Outstanding Achievement in Feature Film (Tom Hooper this year) have gone on to win Best Director in 26 of the past 30 years.
Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
It will be insane if Annette Bening (who has a good chance to upset) actually wins since she delivered the weakest performance of every actress in this field in a mediocre movie (but she plays a lesbian-- how progressive!!) .
Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
I'm really 50/50 between who I think will win here between Rush and Christian Bale for The Fighter. I'm just predicting a really big night for The King's Speech.
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Melissa Leo and Amy Adams split The Fighter votes and Steinfeld (who should've been nominated for Best Actress) gets the Oscar. Though I wouldn't be surprised if Helena Bonham Carter won instead.
The next three are pretty easy picks...
Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech- David Seidler
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network- Aaron Sorkin
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
*I'd like Exit Through the Gift Shop to win for Best Documentary, but I've only seen two of the five nominees, so I really can't make a pick here.